In a rare in-person episode, Tim and Joe speculate about how technological trends will shape the future of cities.
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View full show notes at anarchitecturepodcast.com/ana016.
Intro
FINALLY WE CAN TALK SERIOUSLY ABOUT FLYING CARS
Discussion
- Joe’s report from the future: Living in Australia is like living 15 years ago in the US
- Actually, Amazon Australia Launched 3 weeks after we recorded this episode. WE MAKE THE FUTURE HAPPEN
- Australia’s NBN: National Boondoggle Network
- By the time it’s installed, it’s obsolete
- Crowding out private investment
- A perfect example of why governments shouldn’t build infrastructure
- Status quo thinking
- Grandiose infrastructure projects vs. necessary maintenance
- The Strong Towns approach
- Smart Cities
- Sensors and centralized management
- Algorithms and AI
- Informing future development
- Roads and complexity – Can AI optimize traffic?
- Smart grids – balancing demand
- Hayekian knowledge problem
- How useful is all of this information?
- What’s the real benefit?
- Incremental development vs. political grandstanding
- Joe’s market solution for traffic light priority
- To optimize road systems, privatize them
- Automated Vehicles
- A giant leap, or incremental adoption?
- Communication, reaction time, and automatic re-routing
- Vast improvements in vehicle safety
- Induced demand
- Expanding the suburban catchment area: an exponential relationship
- Urbanization, Suburbanization and Exurbanization
- Telecommuting
- Robots building robots to build other things
- Benefits of face to face meetings
- Milton Keynes – No relation to defunct economists
- Patrik Schumacher’s EXTREME view: a 15 minute commute is too far
- Economies of agglomeration
- “Cities are the brains that direct the rural muscle”
- Ed Glaeser – Triumph of the City
- Skyscrapers and Universities
- “We could be the new Pittsburgh!”
- Another Adelaide boondoggle – the new medical precinct
- Adelaide’s coming rental market crash
- Foreign buyers will lose their shirts
- A paucity of safe investment opportunities – because CENTRAL BANKS
- Job opportunities draw people to cities
- Slums and favelas – a symptom of opportunity
- Resourcefulness of slum dwellers to compensate for lack of capital
- Property rights for slums
- The Long Now Foundation
- Demographics – Human population as an “S” curve
- Feeding the Cities
- Vertical Farms – might make sense if they’re horizontal
- A long way from crowding out the land
- Permaculture – pigs are high tech
- Monoculture – the result of subsidies
- Logistics
- Automated Delivery
- Online grocery shopping – more energy efficient
- Night time deliveries
- Fedex’s parking ticket manager
- Automated Vehicles, Congestion, and Parking
- Drop you off, go park itself
- Changing multimodal transit
- Dynamic routes – adapting to needs in real time
- Doubling peak hour congestion?
- Eliminating on street parking?
- Induced demand strikes again
- FLYING CARS – THE REAL SOLUTION
- Peter Thiel – “We wanted flying cars, and we got 140 characters”
- Jetsons? Rin tin tin? Flubber? Chitty Chitty Bang Bang!
- Automated vehicles are a necessary prerequisite to flying cars
- Flipping the city upside down
- Streets become streets again – more public spaces
- Don’t park – Hover!
- Helicopter taxis in Sao Paulo
- Energy density is essential
- Micro nukes flying around the city driven by self-aware AI’s – what could possibly go
- wrong?
- Other Advances in Energy
- Thorium reactors
- Virtual power plants – aggregating decentralized power sources
- “Behind the meter” schemes
- Solar farm shares rather than roof-mounted
- Photovoltaic roof shingles
- Solar roads – a non-starter
- Batteries
- Your car can power your house
- Quick charging stations
- WE NEED THE ENERGON
- Construction Industry Technology
- Modular construction
- Bricklaying robots
- Tim loves watching masons work
- 3D printed buildings
- Drone cranes – what could possibly go wrong?
- Japanese demolition – No more working at heights
- VR Drone site visits
- Holographic design
- Augmented Reality
- Virtual Reality
- Will we still build real places?
- Authenticity matters
- Cities provide authentic experiences
- VR allows people to live where they want
- Virtual 20th High School Reunion is better than the real thing
- Are haptic hugs creepy?
- The Future of Politics
- A path to privatization?
- The trend towards decentralization favors free markets and deregulation
- Technology – tool for liberation or control?
- Liberty Minecraft – The Virtual Built Environment of a Stateless Society
- Two trends: individualization and voluntary socialization
- Two more trends: Technology disrupting jobs and technology creating ultra-abundance
- Low skilled workers becoming more entrepreneurial
- Passive income opportunities
- Reason to be optimistic
Links/Resources
- Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull says NBN was a mistake and it may never make money
- Strong Towns
- Waze
- Traffic Jam Experiment (Video)
- Automated Cars in Intersections – Pretty sure this is faked, but illustrates the idea.
- Induced demand
- Ed Glaeser – Triumph of the City
- The Long Now Foundation
- Vertical Farming
- Permaculture:
- Peter Thiel’s Manifesto About Flying Cars (and some other stuff). TL;DR
- Thorium Reactors
- Virtual Power Plants
- Blockchain based “Behind the Meter” Scheme in Australia
- Tesla’s Photovoltaic Roof Shingles
- Transformers Energon
- China: 57-Story Skyscraper built in 19 Days
- Japanese Building Demolition
- Google Earth – Kennedy Space Center
- Liberty Minecraft
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